Kalshi Weather Desk — Paper-Trading Report & Dashboard

🚀 Status: Launching Paper-Trading Experiment • Phase: Experimental Paper Trading

Strategy Overview

The Kalshi Weather Desk uses a Forecast-Edge Strategy to capitalize on systematic bias in National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts. By applying a bias-correction model to raw NWS forecasts, the desk identifies mispriced Kalshi weather contracts.

Core Edge: Correcting the systematic warm bias (+0.3°F) in NWS high-temperature forecasts.

Backtest Performance (90-Day Synthetic)

Metric	Target	Measured	Status
Annualized Sharpe Ratio	≥ 1.0	17.65	✅ PASS
Total PnL (90 days)	> $0	$416.50	✅ PASS
Profit Factor	≥ 1.5	20.08	✅ PASS
Win Rate	≥ 55%	84.1% (180/214)	✅ PASS

Additional: Mean daily PnL $4.63, Daily std dev $4.16, Max drawdown $3.30, Total trades 214 positions.

Risk Management — Kill Criteria

The paper-trading experiment will be terminated immediately if any of the following conditions are met:

Sharpe Ratio drops below 0.5 (trailing 30-day rolling)
Profit Factor drops to ≤ 1.0
Maximum Drawdown exceeds $25.00 from peak running PnL
Win Rate falls below 40% (trailing 30-day rolling)
20+ consecutive trading days with losses

Reaching This Experiment

This dashboard is publicly available. The experiment targets internal stakeholders and the quant research team for review before any live deployment phase.

Direct URL: https://{project}.kalshi-weather-desk.pages.dev
Phase: Experimental Paper Trading (no real capital at risk)
Next Steps: Validate against live NWS API, test multi-station robustness, monitor for 60+ trading days.

📌 All Success Criteria Met — Experiment Approved for Paper Trading